Then there are the policy bears. They believe government intervention has made all this artificial and at some point “we will all have to pay the piper”. They disagreed with TARP, said the Stress test wouldn’t work, thought QE would be inflationary, asserted big deficits would drive yields higher, believed austerity in Europe would be good for growth, and compared the US to Greece. They have been wrong, underperforming and are increasingly angry. Rather than admitting they were wrong, many are pushing out the timetable for their forecasts to materialize, or quietly walking them back and hoping if the transformation is gradual enough no one will notice. Because when you’re wrong it is hard (and reputationally costly) to change your views. And, behaviorally, constantly questioning your own views requires much more effort than settling into certainty.
Today, the bar code graces nearly every surface of contemporary life — including groceries, wayward luggage and, if you are a traditionalist, the newspaper you are holding — all because a young man, his mind ablaze with dots and dashes, one day raked his fingers through the sand.
Our experience in the financial arena has taught us to be very humble in applying mathematics to markets, and to be extremely wary of ambitious theories, which are in the end trying to model human behavior. We like simplicity, but we like to remember that it is our models that are simple, not the world.
In our work on expert political judgment we have generally had a hard time finding support for the usefulness of fast and frugal simple heuristics. It’s generally the case that forecasters who are more thoughtful and self-critical do a better job of attaching accurate probability estimates to possible futures.
I would argue that making people more appropriately humble about their ability to predict a short term future is probably, on balance, going to make them more appropriately humble about their ability to predict the long term future
The word “could” is notoriously ambiguous. When you ask research subjects what “could” means it depends enormously on the context. “We could be struck by an asteroid in the next 25 seconds,” which people might interpret as something like a .0000001 probability, or “this really could happen,” which people might interpret as a .6 or .7 probability. It depends a lot on the context. Pundits have been able to insulate themselves from accountability for accuracy by relying on vague verbiage. They can often be wrong, but never in error.
in 1999 with Acela planning fully underway, the FRA pulled the rug out by issuing regulations for high-speed rail service requiring trains to withstand 800,000 pounds force without deformation. The 800,000 figure is an arbitrary number dating back to the 1920s; this mandate has since been increased to 1 million pounds. The buffering requirement confounded Bombadier. Train weight is of crucial importance as it affects the amount of track wear, noise, and energy costs. To meet the buffering regulation, the train would have to be significantly bulked-up. The result was a highspeed train nearly twice as heavy as its European counterparts. As such, the Acela has been described variously as a tank-on-wheels and a bank-vault-on-wheels. Indeed, an overweight train like Acela would be banned from the European high speed rail network.
If systemic risk implies the threat of an event that could disrupt widespread consumer economic participation, and if risk scores are to play a pivotal role in how that event unfolds, then the way to manage systemic risk is to mitigate the trigger at the level of the risk assessment machine. The purpose of intervention would not be to treat any permanently resolvable flaw within FICO®. Rather intervention would address the fact that by its very capacity to coordinate widespread financial action, FICO® is capable of generating conditions that are crises from the point of view of lived experience and political objectives.
Arrested Development NEStalgia Is Here!
Created by super-artist Jesse Eisemann, this 6 cart set is of one of the greatest TV series in history and we are excited to see it in NEStalgia cart form. There is I’m A Monster, Chicken Dance Revolution, Mr. Bananagrabber,Stair Kart, Steve Holt!, and Dr. Funke’s 100% Natural Good-Time Family-Band Solution which can be purchased individually, or you can buy the entire setand save!
Available now @72Pins
This is the best thing I have ever seen.
Have I mentioned that my birthday is coming up?