Quote IconWe’re all, to varying degrees, slaves to our experiences. The [titans of finance’s] formative experiences, almost to a man, were in the early 80s. This is when they built their knowledge and assembled their financial playbooks. They learned words like Milton Freidman, money multiplier, Paul Volcker, Ronald Reagan, and the superneutrality of money. Above all, they internalized one dictum: real men have hard money. This understanding implies that an increase in bank reserves deposited at the Fed (i.e. “printing”) eventually feeds credit growth and thereby inflationary pressures; in other words, no base money increase, no credit growth. Only one problem: reality disagrees.

Behavioral Macro

Whenever I hear people crow about how Bitcoin is “immune from manipulation,” I sigh and wish the Fed could actually do the things so many think it already does…

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A payments thought experiment

Imagine two variants of Uber:

Uber A

  • hail via smartphone app
  • pay by swiping a credit card from your wallet

Uber B

  • hail by calling an operator
  • pay “touchlessly” with a saved credit card

Which would you rather own? What does that tell you?

Quote IconIn other words, much of the “missing” gdp [driven by an 11.5% drop-off in military spending] — whatever its long-term geopolitical value for foreigners — was not creating actual, consumer-relevant value for the United States. Putting back that military spending would pump the gdp number back up, but that is distinct from the economy improving. Fetishizing gdp makes the least sense when it comes to military spending, and it is remarkable how few media accounts recognize this point in even a partial fashion.

Marginal increments of military spending track gdp better than well-being or actual economic performance | Marginal Revolution

Quote IconThe rational agent model has more questionable consequences in the domain of policy [vs. economics] because the assumption that individuals are rational in the pursuit of their interests has an ideological coloring and policy implications that many would view as unfortunate. If individuals are rational, there is no need to protect them against their own choices. At the extreme, no need for Social Security or for laws that compel motorcycle riders to wear helmets. It is not an accident that the department of economics at Chicago University, one of the most illustrious in the world, is known both for its adherence to a strict version of the rational actor model and for very conservative politics.

Daniel Kahneman’s Gripe with Behavioral Economics - The Daily Beast

Silly headline. Nice interview. It’s interesting how in the search for pithy takeaways we’re almost triumphantly enthusiastic about discarding nuance.

Quote IconThe transformation of the stewardess from all-American girl next door to a sexier image, was largely the work of the Burnett advertising agency, which won the United account in 1965, and Mary Wells, the advertising director of Braniff Airlines. Leo Burnett’s team realized that young consumers were an emerging market—and appropriating aspects of the 1960s counter-culture “could help market United to older Americans who still wanted to feel young and hip.” At the same time that the Burnett agency was struggling with its campaign, Branniff kicked off its “Air Strip” television ad, in which a stewardess slowly removed pieces of her Pucci uniform during the flight. Shortly after, United’s ads promised consumers that stewardesses would “go all out to please you!” The sexual revolution had infiltrated the airlines, and other carriers soon modified their images as well.

Sex and the Airlines | The Daily Planet

Related: a great discussion of the Branniff campaign in Art & Copy.

Quote IconLast week, millions watched as an entire city was shut down to look for one guy. Every major news station was covering the pursuit of one guy. We all know the face and relatives of this one guy. And it’s all because he is an alleged terrorist. But more American were murdered in the south and west sides of Chicago than there were U.S. servicemen killed in Afghanistan last year, and yet for some reason we don’t view those neighborhoods as terrorized.

Opinion: Treat Chicago gangs as terrorists - CNN.com

Quote IconWe did it to ourselves. We made it unprofitable for humans to make markets, which reduced the interest in small cap research and the IPO process. We further exacerbated things by allowing the exchanges to go for-profit - the only revenue stream they could find was selling access and data and capabilities to parasitic tech firms. They took the money - now it’s the only money they actually make other than renting out the trading floor for cocktail parties and the Westminster Dog Show. So now we have this atmosphere where a tweet from a hacked account can temporarily wipe out half a trillion dollars of wealth in minutes. Hope you’re enjoying this!

I Survived the Flash Crash of ’13 | The Reformed Broker